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Transfer Rumour Transfer Rumour Thread (January 2017 Window)

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Feb 9, 2008
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I've seen this mentioned a few times about chance quality - the best thing that can be used to measure that is an Expected Goals measure (I'll call it xG from now on). Basically, this assigns a value to every shot based on the historical probability of it going in. For example, a penalty is 0.75xG because penalties are scored 75% of the time.

This article is a little bit out of date (late November) but displays every regular forward in the top four divisions, showing their xG per 90 minutes based on chances created, and actual goals per 90 minutes. If a striker's ratio of goals per 90 minutes is better than their xG per 90 then they are finishing their chances well.

https://experimental361.com/2016/11/24/visualising-each-clubs-attacking-threat/

To sum up: in late November the shots being taken by Evans would, on average, get you around 0.39 goals per 90 minutes. Evans, however, was scoring at a rate of 0.34 per 90 minutes.

For comparison to our strikers - Clarke was having shots worth 0.3 xG per 90, and scoring at the same rate. Hanson was getting chances at around 0.37xG per 90 and scoring at 0.32 per 90. Hiwula was having shots worth 0.27xG per 90 but scoring at 0.3 - actually outscoring the chances created for him at the time.

Finally, our new signing Alex Jones was having shots worth 0.25xG per game but scoring at 0.5 goals per game.

It's interesting that Evans was getting better chances than any of our strikers - we created far more than Chesterfield but the chances are shared around the team, whereas Chesterfield create almost solely for Evans.

These stats will have changed since then - it was before Hiwula's run of games where he kept missing good chances (Walsall, Charlton etc) but I'd also expect Evans' stats to have got worse, as he's scored 1 goal in 7 league appearances since the article was written. It shows that he was no better at taking chances than any of our regular strikers (OK, very slightly better than Hanson) and much worse than Alex Jones.
Wow
 

BCAFCstef

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Jul 30, 2015
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I've seen this mentioned a few times about chance quality - the best thing that can be used to measure that is an Expected Goals measure (I'll call it xG from now on). Basically, this assigns a value to every shot based on the historical probability of it going in. For example, a penalty is 0.75xG because penalties are scored 75% of the time.

This article is a little bit out of date (late November) but displays every regular forward in the top four divisions, showing their xG per 90 minutes based on chances created, and actual goals per 90 minutes. If a striker's ratio of goals per 90 minutes is better than their xG per 90 then they are finishing their chances well.

https://experimental361.com/2016/11/24/visualising-each-clubs-attacking-threat/

To sum up: in late November the shots being taken by Evans would, on average, get you around 0.39 goals per 90 minutes. Evans, however, was scoring at a rate of 0.34 per 90 minutes.

For comparison to our strikers - Clarke was having shots worth 0.3 xG per 90, and scoring at the same rate. Hanson was getting chances at around 0.37xG per 90 and scoring at 0.32 per 90. Hiwula was having shots worth 0.27xG per 90 but scoring at 0.3 - actually outscoring the chances created for him at the time.

Finally, our new signing Alex Jones was having shots worth 0.25xG per game but scoring at 0.5 goals per game.

It's interesting that Evans was getting better chances than any of our strikers - we created far more than Chesterfield but the chances are shared around the team, whereas Chesterfield create almost solely for Evans.

These stats will have changed since then - it was before Hiwula's run of games where he kept missing good chances (Walsall, Charlton etc) but I'd also expect Evans' stats to have got worse, as he's scored 1 goal in 7 league appearances since the article was written. It shows that he was no better at taking chances than any of our regular strikers (OK, very slightly better than Hanson) and much worse than Alex Jones.
Plus it doesn't specify the type of chance be it a half chance, one made out of individual skill or an absolute sitter chance *coughs* Hiwula...
 
I've seen this mentioned a few times about chance quality - the best thing that can be used to measure that is an Expected Goals measure (I'll call it xG from now on). Basically, this assigns a value to every shot based on the historical probability of it going in. For example, a penalty is 0.75xG because penalties are scored 75% of the time.

This article is a little bit out of date (late November) but displays every regular forward in the top four divisions, showing their xG per 90 minutes based on chances created, and actual goals per 90 minutes. If a striker's ratio of goals per 90 minutes is better than their xG per 90 then they are finishing their chances well.

https://experimental361.com/2016/11/24/visualising-each-clubs-attacking-threat/

To sum up: in late November the shots being taken by Evans would, on average, get you around 0.39 goals per 90 minutes. Evans, however, was scoring at a rate of 0.34 per 90 minutes.

For comparison to our strikers - Clarke was having shots worth 0.3 xG per 90, and scoring at the same rate. Hanson was getting chances at around 0.37xG per 90 and scoring at 0.32 per 90. Hiwula was having shots worth 0.27xG per 90 but scoring at 0.3 - actually outscoring the chances created for him at the time.

Finally, our new signing Alex Jones was having shots worth 0.25xG per game but scoring at 0.5 goals per game.

It's interesting that Evans was getting better chances than any of our strikers - we created far more than Chesterfield but the chances are shared around the team, whereas Chesterfield create almost solely for Evans.

These stats will have changed since then - it was before Hiwula's run of games where he kept missing good chances (Walsall, Charlton etc) but I'd also expect Evans' stats to have got worse, as he's scored 1 goal in 7 league appearances since the article was written. It shows that he was no better at taking chances than any of our regular strikers (OK, very slightly better than Hanson) and much worse than Alex Jones.
Makes me think how crap watching football was when all you had to go on was what you saw on the pitch in front of you.
 

Hobhead

Usual Suspect.
C&B Member
Jun 22, 2013
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I've seen this mentioned a few times about chance quality - the best thing that can be used to measure that is an Expected Goals measure (I'll call it xG from now on). Basically, this assigns a value to every shot based on the historical probability of it going in. For example, a penalty is 0.75xG because penalties are scored 75% of the time.

This article is a little bit out of date (late November) but displays every regular forward in the top four divisions, showing their xG per 90 minutes based on chances created, and actual goals per 90 minutes. If a striker's ratio of goals per 90 minutes is better than their xG per 90 then they are finishing their chances well.

https://experimental361.com/2016/11/24/visualising-each-clubs-attacking-threat/

To sum up: in late November the shots being taken by Evans would, on average, get you around 0.39 goals per 90 minutes. Evans, however, was scoring at a rate of 0.34 per 90 minutes.

For comparison to our strikers - Clarke was having shots worth 0.3 xG per 90, and scoring at the same rate. Hanson was getting chances at around 0.37xG per 90 and scoring at 0.32 per 90. Hiwula was having shots worth 0.27xG per 90 but scoring at 0.3 - actually outscoring the chances created for him at the time.

Finally, our new signing Alex Jones was having shots worth 0.25xG per game but scoring at 0.5 goals per game.

It's interesting that Evans was getting better chances than any of our strikers - we created far more than Chesterfield but the chances are shared around the team, whereas Chesterfield create almost solely for Evans.

These stats will have changed since then - it was before Hiwula's run of games where he kept missing good chances (Walsall, Charlton etc) but I'd also expect Evans' stats to have got worse, as he's scored 1 goal in 7 league appearances since the article was written. It shows that he was no better at taking chances than any of our regular strikers (OK, very slightly better than Hanson) and much worse than Alex Jones.
You a hit with the ladies?
 
I've seen this mentioned a few times about chance quality - the best thing that can be used to measure that is an Expected Goals measure (I'll call it xG from now on). Basically, this assigns a value to every shot based on the historical probability of it going in. For example, a penalty is 0.75xG because penalties are scored 75% of the time.

This article is a little bit out of date (late November) but displays every regular forward in the top four divisions, showing their xG per 90 minutes based on chances created, and actual goals per 90 minutes. If a striker's ratio of goals per 90 minutes is better than their xG per 90 then they are finishing their chances well.

https://experimental361.com/2016/11/24/visualising-each-clubs-attacking-threat/

To sum up: in late November the shots being taken by Evans would, on average, get you around 0.39 goals per 90 minutes. Evans, however, was scoring at a rate of 0.34 per 90 minutes.

For comparison to our strikers - Clarke was having shots worth 0.3 xG per 90, and scoring at the same rate. Hanson was getting chances at around 0.37xG per 90 and scoring at 0.32 per 90. Hiwula was having shots worth 0.27xG per 90 but scoring at 0.3 - actually outscoring the chances created for him at the time.

Finally, our new signing Alex Jones was having shots worth 0.25xG per game but scoring at 0.5 goals per game.

It's interesting that Evans was getting better chances than any of our strikers - we created far more than Chesterfield but the chances are shared around the team, whereas Chesterfield create almost solely for Evans.

These stats will have changed since then - it was before Hiwula's run of games where he kept missing good chances (Walsall, Charlton etc) but I'd also expect Evans' stats to have got worse, as he's scored 1 goal in 7 league appearances since the article was written. It shows that he was no better at taking chances than any of our regular strikers (OK, very slightly better than Hanson) and much worse than Alex Jones.
Careful now the Ched fan club don't want to hear the truth or cold, hard facts.
 
Plus it doesn't specify the type of chance be it a half chance, one made out of individual skill or an absolute sitter chance *coughs* Hiwula...
While watching Evans goals last night it may amaze you that he has missed quite a few sitters this season, some Hiwulaesqe in nature.
 
Found that his contract is to Summer 2018 but there is a trigger price, rumoured to be less than the £400k that their fans are claiming.
I heard it was 250k release clause?
 

Kevin1954

C&B Member
May 10, 2013
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Closer to Wembley than most of you!
anyone else get the impression that the posters who seem to be on the older end of the scale (no disrespect meant) are the ones who are most against ched signing?
not having a dig at all, just interested tbh, ive noticed it across the forum
Not from me you ain't. BB

Just say Park and Parrot.... far easier
 
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